Green Card Retrogression 2026: Act Before September 30

What the green card backlog?

The United States issues a fixed number of green cards each year. Congress caps family-sponsored preference categories at 226,000 immigrants annually and employment-based categories at a worldwide level of at least 140,000. On top of those overall caps sits a per-country limit: no single country of birth may take more than 7 percent of the green cards available in a category in a given year. 

Demand from large, high-skilled populations far exceed those numbers. The result is a queue. According to the Cato Institute, the employment-based backlog alone holds roughly 1.8 million people, and the State Department reports more than 4 million people waiting on its immigrant visa waiting list, most of them in family-based categories. Across the wider system, USCIS closed fiscal year 2025 with close to 12 million pending cases of all types. 

Your place in line is set by your priority date, the day your underlying petition was filed. Each month the State Department publishes a Visa Bulletin listing cutoff dates by category and country. When your priority date is earlier than the cutoff, a visa number is available, and you can move forward. When it is not, you will wait. 

Retrogression, and why it clusters before September 30 

Retrogression is when a cutoff date moves backward instead of forwarding. A category that showed a 2015 cutoff one month might show 2013 the next or be marked unavailable. It happens because visa numbers are allocated against an annual budget that runs from October 1 through September 30. Early in the fiscal year the State Department advances dates to encourage applications and use up the year’s supply. As real demand comes in, if usage outpaces projections, the only way to stay within the legal cap is to pull the dates back. 

That is why the late summer months are the riskiest stretch of the year. By August and September, the annual numbers in the most oversubscribed categories are nearly exhausted, so the State Department retreats cutoffs or freezes categories to avoid issuing more visas than the law allows. When the new fiscal year begins on October 1, a fresh allotment of numbers becomes available, and many of those cutoff’s spring forward again. The squeeze is real, but it is also temporary, which is exactly why timing your filing matters. 

Where the backlog stands in 2026 

The July 2026 Visa Bulletin confirmed that the fiscal-year-end pressure has already begun, and the State Department has openly warned that further retrogression or unavailability may be necessary before September 30, 2026. Here is the snapshot for the two groups most affected. 

Employment-based applicants 

Employment categories, especially for applicants born in India and China, are where the backlog is most severe. The per-country cap leaves India sharing roughly 9,800 employment green cards a year across EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3, against a population of applicants that is vastly larger. For a new India-born EB-2 or EB-3 applicant, the Cato Institute estimates the effective wait at well over a century at current issuance rates, and projects that hundreds of thousands of applicants will age out or pass away before a number reaches them. 

• EB-2 India: Unavailable through September 30, 2026. The category is effectively closed for the remainder of the fiscal year. 

• EB-1 India: Retrogressed roughly two months to a final action date in October 2022. 

• EB-3 India: Slight forward movement, but still anchored years in the past. 

• EB-2 and EB-3 Worldwide: Far healthier, with several categories current or close to it for most countries. 

USCIS has confirmed it is accepting employment-based adjustment of status applications under the Final Action Dates chart for July, which has a direct bearing on who can file right now. We cover what that means below. 

Family-based applicants 

Family categories carry the largest share of the overall backlog by raw numbers. The annual 226,000 cap, combined with per-country limits, produces waits that stretch from a year or two for some categories to more than two decades for others. Applicants born in Mexico and the Philippines face the longest family preference waits, reaching 20 years or more in categories like F3 (married children of U.S. citizens) and F4 (siblings of U.S. citizens). 

There is better news in one corner. Recent bulletins brought meaningful forward movement in F2A, the category for spouses and minor children of green card holders, giving some of those families a window to act. As with the employment categories, that movement can stall or reverse near the fiscal year end, so it should be treated as an opportunity, not a guarantee. 

What to do before September 30 

Retrogression rewards people who are ready and punishes people who wait to get organized. If any of the following apply to you, the weeks before September 30, 2026, are the time to move. 

1. Confirm whether you can file adjustment status now. If your priority date is current under the chart, USCIS is honoring, filing Form I-485 locks in benefits even if your category retrogresses later. Check the correct chart, because USCIS specifies each month whether to use Final Action Dates or Dates for Filing. 
2. File for the work and travel benefits that come with a pending I-485. A pending adjustment lets you apply for an employment authorization document and advance parole, which can protect your ability to work and travel while you wait. 
3. Lock in and protect your priority date. Make sure your approved I-140 and priority date are properly documented. A priority date can often be recaptured or ported to a later petition, which preserves your place in line. 
4. Explore EB-2 and EB-3 interfiling. Because applicants can move between EB-2 and EB-3, and the two categories move at different speeds, a downgrade or upgrade can sometimes shorten the wait. This is fact-specific and worth reviewing with counsel before acting. 
5. Check cross-chargeability. A spouse born in a different, less backlogged country can sometimes let the family charge the case to that country, which may dramatically cut the wait. Many applicants do not realize they qualify. 
6. Keep your file ready to move. Medical exams, civil documents, and translations should be current, so you can file the moment a number becomes available. In a fast-moving bulletin, a few days of delay can mean missing the window. 

What happens on October 1 

When fiscal year 2027 begins on October 1, 2026, a new supply of visa numbers is released. Cutoff dates that retrogressed or went unavailable over the summer commonly jump forward again, sometimes substantially. For applicants who could not file before September 30, the start of the new fiscal year is often the next real opportunity. The pattern is predictable enough that it is worth planning around: prepare in the late summer, watch the October and November bulletins closely, and be ready to file the instant your date is current. 

None of this is a reason for panic. It is a reason for the preparation. The applicants who come through retrogression season in the strongest position are the ones who understood the calendar, knew which chart applied to them, and had their paperwork ready before the deadline arrived. 

How Visa-Pros can help 

Reading the Visa Bulletin correctly, confirming which chart applies to your category, and deciding whether to file now or wait for October are exactly the judgment calls where a small mistake can cost months or years. The team at Visa-Pros tracks every monthly bulletin and works case by case to position employment-based and family-based applicants to act at the right moment, not a month too late. 

If you are watching your priority date and are not sure what the September 30 deadline means for your case, schedule a consultation with Visa-Pros. A short conversation now can tell you whether there is a filing window worth catching before the fiscal year resets.